Ⅰ. Hoʻopau hana: ʻO ka "expansion paradox" o ka alumina a me ka alumini electrolytic
1. Alumina: ʻO ka pilikia o ka paʻahao no ka ulu kiʻekiʻe a me ka waihona kiʻekiʻe
Wahi a ka ʻikepili mai ka National Bureau of Statistics, ua hōʻea ka hana alumina Kina i ka 7.475 miliona tons i Malaki 2025 (+ 10.3% makahiki-ma-makahiki), me ka hoʻonui ʻana o 22.596 miliona mau tons i ka hapaha mua (+ 12.0% makahiki-ma-makahiki). ʻOiai ka hoʻomau mau ʻana o ka hana ʻana, ua hāʻule ka mākeke i loko o kahi pōʻai ʻino o ka "hoʻonui ʻana i ka hana me ka hoʻonui ʻole ʻana i ka loaʻa kālā".
Hoʻonui ka lako:Ua ʻoi aku ka nui o ka waihona waiwai alumina kūloko ma mua o 3.958 miliona tons, i hui pū ʻia me ke kaomi ʻana mai ka wehe ʻana o ka puka makani lawe mai (ua hāʻule ke kumukūʻai FOB Australia i $373/ton), a ua hāʻule nā kumukūʻai ma lalo o ka laina kumu kūʻai kālā ma Shanxi māhele (3250 yuan/ton).
ʻO nā kumu kūʻai e hōʻemi i ka hana:Ua hoʻomaka nā mea kanu alumina ma Henan, Guizhou a me nā wahi ʻē aʻe i ka mālama ʻana ma muli o ke kahe o ke kālā, e hopena ana i ka 2.85% mahina ma ka mahina o ka emi ʻana o ka hiki ke hana i 88.6 miliona tons i kēlā me kēia makahiki ma Malaki. Eia naʻe, ʻo ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana o 1 miliona tons o ka mana hana hou ma Indonesia ua hoʻonui i ka overcapacity honua.
2. Electrolytic aluminika: ka "paʻa kaulike" ma lalo o ke kaupaku hiki ke hana
ʻO ka hana alumini electrolytic i Malaki he 3.746 miliona tons (+ 4.4% makahiki-ma-makahiki), a ʻo ka kumulative production i ka hapaha mua he 11.066 miliona tons (+ 3.2% makahiki-ma-makahiki). ʻOiai ka hoʻomaka hou ʻana o ka hana ma ke komohana hema (me Yunnan Hongtai e mālama ana i ka mana hana piha o 1.5 miliona tons), ua kāohi ʻia ka elasticity e nā kulekele.
ʻOi aku ka mana o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka mana:Hoʻomaka hou ʻo Sichuan, Guangxi a me nā wahi ʻē aʻe i ka hana ʻana ma o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka hiki, ʻoiai ua hoʻihoʻi ʻia ka mana hana kahiko o Baotou Aluminum e hoʻopau i ka piʻi ʻana, e hopena i ka ulu ʻana o ka ʻupena.
ʻO ka hoʻopau ʻana o ka waihona waiwai e wikiwiki ana:I ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ʻApelila, ua emi iho ka waihona waiwai o ka alumini electrolytic i 744000 tons (makahiki -138000 tons), a ua hāʻule hoʻi ka LME inventory i 459000 tons, e kākoʻo ana i ka resilience o nā kumu kūʻai alumini.
Ⅱ. Ma ka ʻaoʻao koi: ʻo ka "haehae hoʻonohonoho" ma waena o nā ala kuʻuna a me nā ala hou
1. Kuʻuna kahua: pepehi pālua o ka hale hana a me ka lawe aku
Ke emi nei ke kaulahao waiwai:mai Ianuali a Malaki, ʻo ka helu kūʻai wahi kūʻai o nā hale kūʻai hale i loko o kahi "anu", ʻo 61% wale nō ke kūkulu ʻana i ka hana, a ʻo ka ulu ʻana o ka hana alumini (1,3%) he haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka ulu ʻana o ka lako alumini electrolytic.
Ke kū nei ka hoʻokuke aku i ka hoʻouka kaua:Ua piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai alumini US ma Kina mai 104% a i 145%, me ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka alumini ma Ianuali a me Pepeluali ma lalo o 4.5% i kēlā me kēia makahiki. Ke huli nei nā ʻoihana i ke kālepa transit Asia Hema ma ke ʻano he wahi palekana.
2. ʻO ka ikehu hou a me ka hana kiʻekiʻe: koi no nā ʻenekini hou
Ulu pahū oalumini alumini:I Malaki, ua hiki i ka 1.655 miliona tons (makahiki + 16.2%) ka hana ʻana o ka alumini alumini, i alakaʻi ʻia e ka māmā o nā kaʻa ikehu hou (hoʻololi ʻia ka magnesium aluminika hoʻololi) a me ke koi ʻana i nā kiʻi photovoltaic (e pōmaikaʻi ana i ke kulekele kumukūʻai uila hou).
Breakthroughs i loko o ka localization o kiʻekiʻe-hope alumini mea: Dongqing Special Materials holomua hoao ana i hana kiʻekiʻe magnesium kuʻihao uea blanks, Longi Corporation ka alumini alumini bracket kauoha mahuahua e 35% makahiki-ma-makahiki, a lawe mai i pani i loko o kiʻekiʻe-hopena palapala noi accelerated.
Ⅲ. Ke kumu kūʻai a me ke kumu kūʻai: hāʻule o ka alumina vs.
1. Ke kūkulu hou 'ana i ka pihi kumu kūʻai
Ua hāʻule ka alumini oxide i loko o kahi 'pilikia make':Ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia nā kumukūʻai bauxite home (lalo 5% mahina ma ka mahina ma ka ʻāina ʻo Jin Yu), ua emi nā kumukūʻai mea kōkua e like me ka soda caustic a me ka lanahu, a ua hāʻule nā kumukūʻai kaumaha o ka ʻoihana i 3158 yuan / ton, akā ua hāʻule koke nā kumukūʻai (ua hāʻule nā kumukūʻai wahi Shanxi ma lalo o 3000 yuan / ton).
Ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka palena waiwai no ka alumini electrolytic:Ua emi ke kumu kūʻai o ka alumina i 40% (55% i ka makahiki 2024), ua hōʻea ka waiwai kaumaha o ka ʻoihana alumini electrolytic i 3700 yuan / ton, a ua ʻoi aku ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā o Yunnan hydropower pono waiwai (e like me Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd.) ma mua o 25%.
2. Hoʻonui i ka ʻokoʻa kumu kūʻai
ʻO ka oscillation alumina i lalo:ʻO ka hopena o nā kumu kumu haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa ma waho (ʻo Indonesia e hoʻohui i 6.5 miliona mau tona o ka mana hana e hoʻolilo ʻia) a me ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka mana hana hou (Guangxi's 2 miliona ton papahana hiki i ka hana piha i ʻApelila) ua hoʻopau i ka rebound space, a ʻo ka manaʻo i manaʻo ʻia no ka hapaha lua he 2800-3200 yuan/ton.
ʻO ke kūpaʻa kiʻekiʻe o ka alumini electrolytic:Kūpaʻa mau nā kumukūʻai alumini LME ma ka laulā o 2450-2550 US dollars / ton, a ua kākoʻo ʻia ka ʻaelike nui no Shanghai alumini e ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa a me nā manaʻolana kulekele (nā haʻawina "hoʻohou hou ʻana o ka hale", me kahi pahuhopu pōkole o 20500 yuan / ton.
Ⅳ. Kalepa a me nā Kulekele International: Tariff 'Grey Rhino' a me Green Transformation
1. Ke kaulahao hopena o Kina US pāʻani uku
Hoʻoponopono hou i ke kaulahao ʻoihana kaʻa:Ua kau ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i 25% tariff ma nā kaʻa i lawe ʻia mai, e koi ana i ka hale hana ʻo Tesla's Mexico e hoʻopanee i ka hana. Ua hāʻule ka hapa o nā alumini Kina i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i 5% (ʻo nā ʻoihana e like me Wanʻan Technology ke wikiwiki nei i kā lākou neʻe ʻana i ka mākeke ʻEulopa).
Hoʻolālā Hoʻololi Rusal:Ke kokoke mai nei ka manawa hoʻokuʻu o ka EU no Rusal, ke hoʻolalelale nei ʻo Rusal i kāna hoʻoili ʻana i nā hale kūʻai o ʻAsia (e lawe aku ana i 154000 tons alumina i Rusia i Malaki), a ua piʻi ka LME inventory o Rusal i 82%.
2. Hoʻoulu ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka ʻoihana
Ua hoʻomaka ʻia ka papahana hoʻokele no ka hōʻoia ʻana o ka carbon footprint:Ua hoʻokō ʻia ʻo Baise electrolytic aluminum carbon labeling certification, a ua hoʻonui ʻia ka pahuhopu no ka hana hana alumini recycled i 6 miliona tons i kēlā me kēia makahiki (me ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa alumini alumini Alcoa a hiki i 15%).
Pāʻani uku uila:Ua piʻi hou nā kumukūʻai kinoea kūlohelohe o ʻEulopa i 35 euros/megawatt hola, a ua lohi ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka hana ʻana ma ka hale hana Kelemania ʻo Trimet Aluminum. ʻO ke kūpaʻa o ka wai wai kūloko ma Yunnan ua lilo i wahi pilikia.
Ⅴ. Nānā no ka wā e hiki mai ana: ʻO ka pāʻani pālua o ke koena a me ka hoʻololi
1. Alumina: Loss driven liquidation, kālele 'ana i ka marginal production ho'ēmi
Inā hoʻomau ke kumu kūʻai ma lalo o 3000 yuan/ton, hiki i ka nui o ka hoʻemi ʻana i ka hapaha ʻelua ke piʻi i 2 miliona tons/makahiki, akā hiki i ka mana hana hou o Indonesia ke hoʻopau i ka hopena contraction supply.
Manaʻo hoʻolālā: Laka i nā kumukūʻai maka no ka wā lōʻihi ma nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe a e hoʻolohe i ka China Aluminum Corporation (601600. SH), nona kāna mau mines.
2. Electrolytic aluminika: nā manawa kūpono ma lalo o ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa a me nā māhele kulekele
ʻO ka piʻi makahiki o ka noi no ka ikehu hou (photovoltaic+new energy vehicles) ʻo 800000 a 1 miliona tons, e hoʻopau ana i ka emi ʻana o nā māla kuʻuna. Manaʻo ʻia ke kikowaena kumu kūʻai alumini e mālama i ka 19500 a 21500 yuan / ton.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Apr-22-2025